Can Harper Hope to Hang On?

A few weeks ago, we here at Wenzel suggested that Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper was going to lose the next federal election. Our argument was that Harper misunderstood the nature of his mandate, that his success was not due to his own electoral pledges, but rather as votes against the Liberal Party led by Paul Martin. We suggested that Harper's actions in regards to Israel, peacekeeping in Lebanon, his relationship with US President Bush, his failure to support the Kyoto Accord, as well as his failure to appear at events like this month's AIDS conference, will only remind disenchanted Liberals of the gulf of beliefs between them and Harper.

A recent poll indicates that this might already be the case. Support for the Liberals is on the rise in Quebec, where the party took the biggest hit, and support for the Tories is in decline. In fact, support for Harper has declined to pre-election levels. Granted it's far too early to call the Harper regime dead in the water, the telling moment will come following the Liberal Leadership elections in Montreal this Novemeber. Currently, the box of chocolates appearance of the Party leadership race reminds us too much of the chaos of the 1968 Democratic race. The Liberals will need a charismatic leader, who can appeal to Quebec without alienating Ontario. Is that something that Michael Ignatieff can do?