Is The Boom Over?

The newspapers were awash with predictions from the provincial Finance Minister that the decade of unbridled oil wealth is coming to a close. Sure, Lyle Oberg admitted, the provincial surplus from oil revenues was the second highest in provinicial history, but a sharp decline is coming. This announcement follows recent reports that the summer months could bring with them much labour strife, as hundreds of provincial unions have contracts that expire. This fact makes Oberg's news seem very likely to be a bit of posturing to help prepare the public for the government's position on holding down wages. However, casual conversations heard on the street, in shops, and even in grocery store check-out lines, speak to the feeling that new oil discoveries are becoming harder and harder to find, lending some credence to Oberg's stance.

More interesting though, are stories of more and more people leaving Calgary, either disillusioned with their inability to find adequate housing, or that the promises of good pay cannot match the ever-increasing cost of living in Calgary and Edmonton. As well, a number of educated, middle-class bureaucrats are also checking out of the major urban centres, cashing in on the real estate boom as they move back to the cheaper climes of Saskatchewan or Nova Scotia.

Is the boom really over then?

The last fifteen years have perhaps done significant damage to the social infrastructure of the city. First, the nation-wide recession of the early 1990s inhibited all sorts of growth, while encouraging youths to enter post-secondary education (since fewer and fewer out-of-high school jobs were available). Unfortunately, the glut of university graduates produced during the period of 1992-1997 infamously saw degree-holders mired in entry-level service sector jobs, that did little to encourage any form of social stability, and in fact increased worker mobility (ie, I can just as easily get a crappy job elsewhere as here). This transience delayed marriages, home-purchasing, and even child-rearing. Without significant income, this population remained part of the renting class and very few were able to take advantage of the subsequent dramatic rise in real estate values that began in the late 1990s and approach significant levels in recent years. More recent graduates however, have had something of an easier time finding post-university careers and are enjoying a larger degree of prosperity than those five to ten years older.

One wonders if we are not something of a lost generation, but the pain has not been limited to the university education. Residential values in working class neighbourhoods remained flat throughout the 1990s, only recently increasingly significantly. This contributed to the sharpening division in Calgary between the rich and poor. Those who were barely surviving in 1991, continue to barely survive, while those who were even somewhat ahead are now tremendously further afield.

Furthermore, the recession, coupled with the budget slashing of the deficit fighting years prevented much necessary infrastructure work from occuring. The social services, designed to adequately cope with a population of approximately 650,000 were reduced by ministerial order, even as the population began to rocket towards a million. Many of the major projects that are currently causing traffic chaos, are projects first designed in the last decade, some even longer.

The wealth generated in this province, very little of which has been used to deal with these problems in a sustainable or constructive manner makes things all the more frustating.